The Bank of England (BoE), US Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) have all kept rates on hold this month.. Following the outcomes of their rate-setting meetings, market expectations are now building for all three to cut in June.
For its part, the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided today to keep the UK’s main policy interest rate on hold at 5.25% for the eighth consecutive month. As in the eurozone and the US, inflation in the UK has been moderating, but the committee continues to look for evidence it is falling back to its target on a sustainable basis. Annual inflation in the UK, as measured by the Consumer Prices Index, has fallen from a peak of 11.1% in October 2022 to 3.4% last month (February). This represents the lowest rate of price increases since September 2021.
Pressure mounting on BoE to cut interest rates
With the UK economy in recession, pressure is mounting on the BoE to begin to ease policy. The MPC’s language has shifted from a signal that interest rates would remain higher for longer, and essentially on hold for a prolonged period, to a signal that interest rates can fall, but remain restrictive. However, while the MPC acknowledges the near-term easing of inflation pressures in the latest MPC meeting minutes, it also stated that indicators of the persistence of inflation remain elevated. Overall, the decision to keep rates on hold is not a surprise, and while the MPC minutes suggest rate cuts are closer, there is little to suggest that easing is imminent. There was also a slight shift in the votes amongst MPC members, as the one member that had been voting for a hike, has now joined the flock in voting for no-change. Meanwhile, only one member of the nine-person committee voted for a cut (again).
Market expectations for the first interest rate cut have shifted in recent weeks from August to June, as inflation has undershot the BoE’s forecast, and the outcome of the Spring Budget, which while it included some giveaways, was overall underwhelming. The Schroders forecast had the BoE cutting its interest rate from May, but it seems that the BoE is waiting for further confirmation that inflation pressures, particularly the contribution from the service sector, have eased further. Caution on the MPC’s part may mean that the cut comes through just a month later in June, as currently expected by most market participants. As a result, we’ve also adjusted our forecast for the first cut to be in June.
Markets now expect all three central banks to cut in June
Financial markets also appear to be coalescing around June for the ECB and Fed to start cutting rates. The Schroders forecast had the ECB cutting rates this month (March), which was proven to be too soon following the outcome of ECB Governing Council rate-setting committee earlier this month. Despite the ECB staff projections showing inflation returning to target at the two-year time horizon, the council decided to wait until more data was available that confirmed the improvement in inflation was likely to last.
In the Q&A session during the ECB press conference, President Lagarde suggested that a lot more data would be available by the meeting in June, but not enough for April – providing the strongest hint yet that June is seen as a milestone month. As a result, we have updated our rates forecasts and conclude that both the BoE and ECB will be cutting their respective interest rates in June, in line with our call for the Fed, with the latter call further supported by the outcome of the bank’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting held yesterday. We still expect the ECB to cut four times this year for a total of 100 basis points (bps), while our forecasts have the BoE and Fed cutting by 75 bps each.
About the Author
Azad Zangana is a Senior European Economist & Strategist at Schroders, which involves formulating the house view on the UK and Eurozone economies. He joined Schroders in 2009 and is based in London. Azad was an Economist at HM Treasury from 2004 to 2009, which involved working on UK macroeconomic analysis and Eastern Europe. Azad is a Member of the Society of Professional Economists. Qualifications: Investment Management Certificate (IMC); MSc in Economics from the University of Southampton; BSc in Economics from Royal Holloway, University of London.
For professional investors and advisers only. The material is not suitable for retail clients. We define “Professional Investors” as those who have the appropriate expertise and knowledge e.g. asset managers, distributors and financial intermediaries.
Any reference to sectors/countries/stocks/securities are for illustrative purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument/securities or adopt any investment strategy.
Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions.
The material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations.
The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of investments to fall as well as rise.
The views and opinions contained herein are those of the individuals to whom they are attributed and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders communications, strategies or funds.
Information herein is believed to be reliable but Schroders does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.
This document may contain “forward-looking” information, such as forecasts or projections. Please note that any such information is not a guarantee of any future performance and there is no assurance that any forecast or projection will be realised. Schroders will be a data controller in respect of your personal data. For information on how Schroders might process your personal data, please view our Privacy Policy available at www.schroders.com/en/privacy-policy/ or on request should you not have access to this webpage.
For your security, communications may be recorded or monitored.
Issued by Schroders Investment Management Ltd registration number: 01893220 (Incorporated in England and Wales) is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority and an authorised financial services provider in South Africa FSP No: 48998
